Tasseography

Tasseography is a the practice of fortune-telling by interpreting patterns in tea leaves, coffee grounds, or wine sediments.

This sounds crazy, unless

• You believe it and/or
• It has worked for you.

Some examples of complex problem solving which seem mystical:

• Medical doctors diagnosing an illness
• Coaches evaluating an athlete's potential
• An analysis of what it takes to turn around a failing company
• Bringing social change by working to eliminate deeply rooted and dysfunctional beliefs (e.g. smoking is cool)

If you are facing any of these (or similar) situations, you may turn to experts to help. These experts will charge a premium price and not be able to provide any guarantees anyway. (We can debate on whether the expectation of a guarantee is reasonable in the first place, but that would be digressing).

Most problem solving in real life is like tasseography, until the realization sets in that predictable problem solving is a matter of understanding patterns and the cause-effect relationships. Each class of problems have unique characteristics that sometimes requires years of effort to acquire. This means you can acquire expertise in some areas but not all.

At a minimum, you need to spend time to understand the underlying principles behind problem solving in a particular domain. Yes, experts are still needed. But if you don't take an interest in the underlying principles, you cannot make an informed decision and take charge of your own destiny. It may be cheaper to read tea leaves, since the end result is the same as not making an effort to get educated.